Balancing act in the Balkans
A recent interview by the Assistant Secretary of State Dept. for European and Eurasian affairs reflects the current conundrum of the US foreign policy in the Balkans.
USA seems content to be dealing with both Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde, when it comes to the current state of relations with Serbia. In the famous 1886 Gothic novella by Scottish author Robert Louis Stevenson, the good citizen Dr. Henry Jekyll creates a potion to separate his good and evil sides, transforming himself ever more frequently into the sinister and murderous Mr. Hyde.
Serbia’s leader Vucic has been drinking the infamous potion for some time now.
On one side, he has provided significant financial support (in the Balkan terms at least) for Ukraine; has become a major provider of ammo used to kill as many Russian occupiers of Ukraine as possible; has co-signed (together with Kosovo and dozens of other nations) the Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework for Ukraine, condemning Russian aggression; and gives every second day interviews proclaiming desire for peace in Balkans
On the other side, Vucic has named into his cabinet both known white supremacists and pro-Russian assets sanctioned by the US government; has trained and equipped terrorist units that attacked and murdered Kosovo policeman (self-confessed leader of these paramilitary unites is Vucic’s personal prigozhin); has played a role in destabilizing NATO-member Montenegro, has inflamed situation in Bosnia with support of the corrupt and pro-Russian nationalist proxies; has extradited poor Belarus opposition activists back to Lukashenka; has employed friends of his son who are also known murderous thugs, some of whom have been accused of chopping people to pieces in minced meat machines inside state-owned stadiums; and has turned Serbia in an autocracy where media, police, secret service, football ultras, mafia is fully controlled by the deep state tied to Vucic.
But then again, he also made Serbia open for business, attracting more foreign direct investment from the US, EU, Emirates and other investors, than the entire rest of the Western Balkans combined, surpassing even the FDI in the EU member country Croatia with its long coast and massive tourism industry. Vucic also “promised Europeans he wouldn’t give the lithium reserves to Chinese” opening the country for investments by British-Canadian Rio Tinto, in the lithium mining that may meet 13 per cent of the continent’s needs by 2030.
Yet, he has also increased dramatically cooperation and alignment with China, giving fat contracts to Chinese companies (using loans from China or — ironically — massive grants from the EU); allowing Chinese interior ministry set up shop in Serbia to chase dissidents; blanketed the territory of Serbia in Chinese surveillance equipment.
As FT has noted in a recent (in ever-so-slightly puffy) piece, Vucic is openly (and successfully) “playing off the US, Russia, China and Europe”.
Following the global geo-strategic earthquake caused by the war in Ukraine, it seems that US government strategy is to optimize the returns from Dr Jekyll while minimizing the risks from Mr Hyde, but willingly (if begrudgingly) ignoring the fact that this is one and the same person.
A recent interview by the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia, James O’Brien, reflects this policy quote well. In an interview for a Serbian state agency, O’Brien is clear defining that “the primary security risk is the north of Kosovo and the threat of secession of a part of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” but carefully avoided naming Serbia as the only culprit in this escalation.
When asked by the Serbian journalist why Kosovo is allowed to purchase drones when (according to the Serbian reading of UN resolution 1244), “only armed force allowed to operate in Kosovo is KFOR”. O’Brien was methodical and had no qualms to call spade a spade: “Resolution 1244 created a process to discuss Kosovo’s future. That process led to Kosovo’s independence. Kosovo has the right to defend its territory without endangering its neighbors. Overall, it is a step forward towards stability in the region, and for this, it will have the support of the U.S.” — O’Brien said.
US has indeed previously approved sale of hundreds of Javelin anti-tank missiles to Kosovo after the terrorist attack in Banjska by the Serbian proxies, having no doubt that the main threat to Kosovo, and the only potential aim for those javelins will be the Serbian tanks.
But at the same time, speaking about the presence of Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Gjuric at the dinner organized by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during the NATO summit, as well as cooperation with Serbia, O’Brien stressed that “U.S. is very pleased with the cooperation, noting that Serbia is on its way to strengthening its armed forces” adding importantly that “the U.S. believes that security cooperation can contribute to stability in the region by increasing transparency and ensuring there are no surprises from paramilitary and military formations.” [my highlights]
O’Brien added that “we are encouraged by this, and we welcome the [Serbian] Foreign Minister, who is here this week. I think cooperation and support for Ukraine are of vital importance. Ukraine stands for the basic principle of territorial integrity. I know President Vučić speaks about this principle; we disagree on some of its applications, but in this context, what Serbia is doing by making its weapons available and helping Ukraine fight for a basic principle of international law — we welcome that,”
In the original horror book “Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde”, as Hyde’s brutal malevolent actions escalate, Jekyll struggles to control his darker half, leading to tragic consequences. Unchecked inner evil escalates leading to more death and mayhem.
While US may have strong reasons to believe, and maybe even the tools at disposal to ensure the current cooperation of Vucic on the big ticket items such as Ukraine, the policy must also enable the rest of Balkans to be protected from the dark, hegemonic tendencies of the Serbian state, now led by a person with propensity for dangerous political potions. The path to NATO membership for Kosovo and the active mitigation of negative Serbian activities in Bosnia and Montenegro (maybe even North Macedonia) must be the primary objectives, to protect the peace dividends of decades-long US political, security and financial investments in the region.
But in these efforts, at least when it comes to Kosovo, US has been severely hampered by the present Kosovan government, who became out not only out of step, but also out of touch with the long-term US national interests in Balkans (which are essentially aligned with Kosovan national interests), completely oblivious to the shifting sands beneath.
In this balancing act, US could have received some support from Kosovo to tip the scales towards Kosovo itself, but preciously little support ever came from Prishtina.
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