Of protests, election shenanigans and Russian spies
This is an expanded note, based on my recent Twitter thread, on the most recent events in Belgrade and the implications on the current state of dialogue on normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia. My initial thread caused the Serbian government-controlled, trashy tabloids, to somewhat absurdly accuse me of conspiring to murder Serbian president, so I figured I’ll give the Serbian propaganda masters more meat on the bone.
Serbian President Vucic called for the snap elections only a year after having organized the last snap elections. Most commentators agreed that the elections were organized to reinforce his power and to delay dealing with the obligation stemming from the latest agreements with Kosovo — agreed (but not signed) in Brussels and Ohrid. These agreements reached in 2023, call for Serbia’s “de facto” recognition of Kosovo’s independence, in return for Kosovo’s establishment of an instrument of autonomy for Kosovan Serbs called the Association of Serbian Majority Municipalities (ASMM). Kosovo would also be able to join all international organizations unopposed by Serbia as a result of this agreement.
Elections went as expected. Vucic used the might of his security apparatus to coerce the election turnout from the rural countryside and state-owned companies, his media published racy private sexual videos of opposition candidates; “phantom voters” were bussed from Bosnia; and independent elections observers were physically attacked.
No one can really pretend anymore that Serbia is a real democracy. It has been sliding down every year for a decade now, in all the major indexes of democracy. The media freedoms are seriously threatened by a conglomerate of state pressure mechanisms and tabloids financed by the government itself. Serbia now has bares all the hallmarks of an authoritarian regime. Western media have started speaking of a Vucic “regime”, not of a credible government in an EU enlargement candidate.
The Serbian opposition started protesting this week, focusing on the skewed electoral results for Belgrade municipality, where the bussing of non-resident voters from across former Yugoslavia was especially egregious.
At one point, the protesters (or — as some Serbian opposition twitterati claim — government agents posing as protestors) used violence to enter the Central Election Commission. Serbian police response was as expected forceful, using teargas followed by mass arrests. Many youngsters were immediately given 30 days detentions.
As some have noted, Milan Radoicic, a wealthy ally of Serbian president who has publicly admitted to leading the terrorist group that murdered a Kosovan policeman, stayed in detention for only a few hours, while the high school protesters have been met with very harsh and immediate reaction from the police, prosecutors and judges — all under control of Vucic regime.
There was another line of response from Serbian PM that was quite revealing of other processes unfolding behind the dirty curtain of Serbian politics.
PM Ana Brnabic is Vucic’s personal protege, used to be considered as a progressive force due to her open lesbian relationship, but has since turned into sinister figure of shakespearean tragedies, spewing daily statements against opposition. She has yesterday rather unabashedly thanked publicly the Russian services for “notifying the Serbian government about the incidents planned in Belgrade” which, as she claimed, were “orchestrated by some Western services.”
Serbian President Vucic has claimed during the entire 2023 that Western spies are “out to get him”, but this is the first time a sitting Serbian PM acknowledged communication and coordination with the notorious and murderous Russian FSB.
Backlash has been swift. Former ally of Serbian President accused Vucic and Brnabic being “controlled by FSB”. Moscow also reacted publicly, coming to defense of their allies in Belgrade, and repeating the accusations of “Western powers” being behind attempt to oust Vucic. American Brigadier General Pamela L. McGaha (USAR) stated during a visit in Sarajevo yesterday, that “Russia is still playing role of country undermining stability if the entire region”.
But where is the European Union in all of this? One would expect this open flirtation between Vucic and Brnabic and Putin and the FSB to cause some degree of dismay in Brussels?
Well, not quite.
On the very day the opposition protests in Belgrade culminated in open clashes, the Serbian government has quietly recognized the Kosovo car plates bearing the sign and name of “Republic of Kosovo” (RKS).
This was one of the main points of dispute between Kosovo and Serbia ever since the first Brussels agreements, as Kosovo vowed to ban the ilegal Serbian plates claiming names of Kosovan towns, while Serbian gov didn’t allow Kosovan cars to move freely through Serbia. The crisis over plates caused diplomatic reactions, street barricades, violence and mass resignations of Kosovan Serbs from police duties in northern Kosovo.
Serbian President himself, only a year ago vowed to “never surrender” on recognizing the RKS car plates, especially in the northern Kosovo. Thus, Vucic’s massive about-face on recognizing fully the RKS car plates was greeted with tweets of support from the European Union.
It’s a classic Vucic move, and a rather transparent one too: on one side working with Russians to keep the control of the growing dissent inside the country, while ratcheting up the anti-Western rhetoric — and on the other hand, working with Brussels and Washington DC on some incremental positive move vis-a-vis Kosovo, proving credentials as “man who can deliver” in the peace process with Kosovo.
The West still buys it.
Despite growing body of evidence Vucic regime is a hybrid of a mafia state, working in coalition with a very violent remnants of Milosevic’s deep state, the West still prefers working with Vucic — both to keep Serbia out of Russian sphere of influence, and because they actually believe he’s the only one able to deliver on Kosovo.
Kosovo’s leaders have not been as skilled in attracting sympathies in Brussels and Washington DC. The old footprint established by several consecutive Kosovan governments in Western capitals after independence is gone.
PM Kurti has incurred the wrath of Kosovo’s allies with his less-than-elegant diplomatic approach. Kosovo is actually still under silly sanctions by EU — making Kurti the only European leader, bar Putin and Lukashenka, under a Western sanctions regime. US Armed Forces have cancelled drills with Kosovo’s fledgling military force during this summer, further penalizing Kurti for lack of coordination on north.
Kurti’s response has been mixed, but not effective, to say the least.
He has openly accused EU envoys as “siding with Serbia”. He has initially refused to draft a statute for the Association of Serbian Majority Municipalities for many years — despite being urged to do so by key allies — but then accepted an EU draft of the statute — but after firstly denying to have seen it.
He’s also on the record saying he will “never accept the statute” unless it’s signed by both sides, along the rest of the Ohrid/Brussels agreements. Neither US nor EU think signature ceremony is necessary for Kosovo to start implementing its share of the bargain. In the most recent outburst last week, Kurti has stated that he alone will draft “a modern European draft of the Association’s statute”, seemingly sowing doubt on whether he accepted or not the EU proposal. EU’s response was swift: “Kosovo had 10 years to draw up a draft statute” and Kurti must now “base it on our draft”. As expected, Russia’s MFA also chimed in today, claiming EU draft “would deprive it of important executive functions.”
Kurti’s labyrinthine journey on the issue of dialogue with Serbia is bewildering.
His starting point was using violence and teargas against the agreements with Serbia in 2015; to declaring “death of dialogue” in 2017; to stating that dialogue was “not a priority” as a new Prime minister in 2021; to publishing “four principles” before any dialogue with Serbia can start in 2021, also dismissing “any need to discuss the formation of an Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities”; to publishing “six conditions” for accepting discussions on ASMM, including “reciprocity between Kosovo and Serbia regarding minority rights.” These principles and conditions were soon forgotten, when Kurti actually verbally agreed in Ohrid in February 2023 to implement previous agreements, in return for “de facto” recognition but since then he disagreed with the EU over sequencing.
Then in September, a terrorist attack unfolded in Kosovo which ended with one Kosovo police officer murdered and three assailants eliminated, out of a group of several dozen well-armed terrorists who hid in a Serbian Orthodox Monastery.
A close ally of Serbian president was recorded by the Kosovan security drones of leading the group. Serbia was also accused of aiding, abating and training this group. Sources claim evidence of Serbian involvement has already been presented in a closed session of NATO council.
So, what’s the way out of this latest quagmire? In short term, there’s no indication that the Western powers will have a change of heart in supporting Vucic. Despite warnings that Vucic is a wolf in sheeps’ skin and calls for a change in the Western approach (here, here and here), West still finds him more credible than the motley crue of Serbian opposition parties, ranging from the far-right, ultra-nationalists, to the civic-minded activists, to a newly empowered conspirationist Q-anon politician Dr. Nestorovic, who may yet end up being a king-maker after polls in Belgrade.
But Vucic is in a pickle and the West (and Kosovo) should use this window of opportunity.
The Western pressure on Kosovo regarding ASMM should be followed up by a carrot of the Euro-Atlantic integration, which must lead the US and allies to provide Kosovo with a credible and formal path towards NATO membership.
US diplomats have noted that NATO members in Balkans (Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro) are doing well, compared to Balkan countries with “populist leadership” (which is how West currently views Kosovo too).
So why not work with Kosovo, where EU and NATO have over 90% approval rating, to open the doors of integration, rather than threaten it with sanctions? A clear choice, explicitly stated, should be put forth for Kosovan leaders: NATO membership being a clear and attainable aim on one side of spectrum of “carrots and sticks”. (A good report from Atlantic Council has similarly outlined the possibilities for new pivot for Kosovo).
Full transparency — and if needed sanctions — are also a necessary outcome from the September terrorist attacks investigations. If the Western security services and NATO are aware that Serbia was behind the unspeakable attack on Kosovo, this should be known and threats of sanctions should be executed, regardless of Vucic’s cynical ploys and plays with Western diplomats.
Kosovo’s leadership has a chance to save the day.
For this, courage, am open dialogue with Kosovan opposition (stopping the foolish and ghastly polarizing discourse against anyone who dares criticize “the dear leader” Kurti will help here), and a direct coordination with DC and Brussels, is an imperative.
It may be that Kurti is not a man of big decisions, but of small tactical games — the jury is still out on this, but Kosovo’s progress and increasingly complicated and precarious position in the new and challenging political and diplomatic global landscape, will be not be improved by finger-pointing and fiddling, while the proverbial Rome burns.
While elections in the deeply undemocratic Serbia have changed nothing, Kosovo is a lively democracy with regular rotations of prime ministers — and situation here may yet be able to change with a fresh pair of elections.
- Update 28 Dec: Kosovo Parliament Speaker Glauk Konjufca just provided a new twist on the saga of the creation of the ASMM, stating “I think it just can’t be done, do you know why — the position of our government and state is this: it can only be done with recognition, and in an agreement which is signed by Vučić on behalf of Serbia, which recognizes the de facto statehood of Kosovo,” Konjufca said in an interview with “Klan Kosova”, continuing “This, Vučić will never do. And as a result, we come to the conclusion that if he doesn’t do it, our part won’t be done either.”
